RUSSO-UKRAINIAN WAR: IS IT THE END OF WESTERN HEGEMONY?

The Russian war on Ukraine, which began at dawn on Thursday, February 24, will mark a turning point in the world order based on unipolarity since the fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989. Perhaps the actions of the United States as the sole ruler of the world, the repudiation of its obligations, its unilateral withdrawal from many international agreements, and its military invasion of countries Outside the decisions of the Security Council, or the siege of other countries with the same logic, the escalation of the grumbling of its allies and opponents alike. What we are witnessing in Ukraine today, and without falling into the justification of Putin’s decision that violates the sovereignty of a neighboring country, is the result of further insulting Moscow by repudiating all the pledges made by the West not to expand NATO to the east, and not to deploy the medium and short-range missile system, in addition to To expel Russia from the G-7 group of major industrial countries, and impose economic sanctions on it, leading to the annexation of the former Soviet Baltic republics to NATO.

After Moscow woke up from its two-decade post-Soviet coma, and after regaining some of its economic and diplomatic health, it moved to prevent the annexation of the remaining Soviet republics. In 2008, for example, it intervened militarily in Georgia and supported the secession of the Republic of South Ossetia, then annexed the peninsula. Crimea in 2014, and between this and that, it tried to open new fronts to confront the West in an unconventional war in which mercenaries were used and tools of the fourth generation of wars such as social networks, electronic attacks, satellite TV channels in all languages, and others, and among the foci of those wars were Central Africa, Syria, Libya, and Venezuela. And Mali. The aim behind this was to acquire cards to pressure the West to return it to the negotiating table, implement its previous commitments with Moscow in 1997, and recognize it as an area of ​​influence in its immediate vicinity. There is no doubt that Ukraine is at the heart of this Russian strategy to redraw its vital space.

But Washington continued to ignore Russia's demands and refused to pledge not to include Ukraine in NATO, which is the main demand of Russia in the list of demands on which a multi-point paper was presented in the negotiations that took place in Geneva in January 2022 with the US administration, which did not lead to a result. The West could have responded to the tsar's request, especially since there is a similar precedent, which is the status of Finland during the Cold War, which continues to this day as a non-NATO European country.

Without going into the issues of international legitimacy, Ukrainian sovereignty, and it's right to join the alliance or not, Putin saw in the US behavior towards Ukraine an unjustified strategic threat to Russia's national security, not only at the military level but even at the economic and cultural levels, given the specificity of historical and ethnic relations between the two countries. Moscow and Kiev. More than that, the Russian president considered Washington’s disregard for his demands a personal insult to him, and contempt for Russia’s strategic weight. The attack on Ukraine was accompanied by a speech by the master of the Kremlin, broadcast on official television on the morning of the attack, in which he clearly and directly promised European countries and America an immediate and unprecedented response in history if they ventured to block his way.

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But before that attack, a prominent international event had passed without causing much noise, which is the announcement of the "partnership without borders" between China and Russia, during Putin's visit to Beijing in early February, that is, three weeks before the start of the invasion, and the Chinese president stated in that meeting that he supports the demands of Russia does not include Ukraine in NATO. In return, President Putin announced his recognition of China's sovereignty over Taiwan.

Here is the link for the Persians about the repercussions of the invasion of Ukraine on international relations and the world order. This declaration between China and Russia suggests that strategic understandings have been made between China, which Washington is fighting in the field of technology and economy, and Russia, which Washington is fighting in the energy, security, and strategic arena, and Putin may have surrounded He noted his colleague Chi Jiping before the Red Army's move towards Ukraine. In return, China obtained explicit recognition from Russia of its sovereignty over Taiwan, which may pave the way for the Yellow Dragon to make a similar move to invade Taiwan at a later time with Moscow's approval. This will cause the biggest earthquake in international relations after the Second World War and the dissolution of the Soviet Union. This would rearrange the world's cards and herald the birth of an international system on the ruins of the current three-decade-old unipolar system, which is often described, even by European think tanks, as the system of the American empire.

Perhaps one of the most prominent features of this new system is the “partnership without borders” that was announced on the fifth of February between the Chinese dragon and the Russian bear, which includes huge contracts to supply Russian gas to China to ensure the flow of energy supplies to China, which is the major weakness of the Chinese power. The emerging-market depends almost entirely on importing fuels from abroad.

Moreover, this alliance without borders will extend to the space and military domains, and the two countries organized the largest military maneuvers known in history in 2018, with the participation of more than 300,000 soldiers and thousands of aircraft and tanks. On the economic side, the Chinese expansion in Africa and Latin America will constitute “the end of the West’s domination of the world,” which French President Emmanuel Macron spoke about publicly in his address to the ambassadors on August 27, 2019.

And if China had undertaken to end that hegemony economically, then Russia proceeded to finish off the colonial legacy by forcefully entering the Sahel and Central African countries. The country was replaced by Russian forces.

We are therefore facing the end of the dependence of the former colonies on the metropole, and this is also the beginning of the economic and strategic contraction of Europe whose leaders, meeting on the night of the twenty-fifth of February, found themselves unable to take strict economic sanctions against Russia, such as imposing a comprehensive blockade on Russian natural gas, for example. Which is an important resource for the Kremlin treasury. But Europe is too weak to take such a decision because it imports more than half of its energy needs from Russia, and it does not have a substitute for it at the present time. This fact made the American decision to isolate Russia from the global banking system a suspended decision because Germany, Austria, Italy, Slovenia, and other countries are obliged to pay dues for Russian gas through this banking system. This explains the dispute within the European House over the ceiling of sanctions against Moscow. This is a strong indication that the Kremlin entered into the equation of the invasion of Ukraine all these factors, and prepared for this several years before taking that step, while Europe was unable to anticipate or anticipate the disaster.

And if the dust of war obscures our view now of who benefits more and who loses the most in this war, what is certain is that the world order will change, and the rules of the game will be updated, and the clock will be set this time to Beijing and Moscow time, not Brussels and Washington time.